March Analysis: OPCOM Spot Market Sees 6% Price Increase Amid Global Disruptions, Yet Avoids European Peaks — NRG-IA

Global Context and the Romanian Energy Market in March The Day-Ahead Market (PZU) operated by OPCOM, an essential barometer for short-term electricity prices in Romania, recorded a 6% increase in its average daily price in March compared to February. This internal adjustment comes during a period marked by exacerbated volatility in global energy markets, particularly in the oil sector. Paradoxically, despite this local increase, Romania has for the second consecutive month exited the top of the most expensive spot markets in the European Union, distancing itself from Central European states that dominate this ranking, according to data from Profit.ro . This divergence raises essential questions about the resilience and specific mechanisms of the Romanian energy market in the face of external pressures. The recent geopolitical context has been dominated by critical developments in the oil market. OPEC's oil production reached its lowest level since the peak of the COVID-19 pandemic in June 2020, according to a Reuters survey cited by Profit.ro . Furthermore, drone attacks on Russian refineries, such as the one in Ufa, located 1,300 kilometers from the Ukrainian border, added an extra layer of uncertainty, potentially disrupting supply chains, as reported by HotNews.ro . These events, along with the warning from the Executive Director of the International Energy Agency (IEA) about a “greatest disruption in history” in April, caused by the impact of inactivity in the Strait of Hormuz, underscore an imminent global energy crisis, as mentioned by HotNews.ro and HotNews.ro . In this tense landscape, even measures such as Germany's prohibition on increasing fuel prices more than once a day, according to Profit.ro , highlight the severity of the situation at a European level. President Trump's speech on the war in Iran amplified volatility, leading to rising oil prices and falling stocks in Asian markets, according to HotNews.ro and HotNews.ro . Analysis of OPCOM Spot Market Price Dynamics in March The 6% increase in the average daily price on OPCOM's Day-Ahead Market (PZU) in March 2026, compared to February, indicates a national cost adjustment. This evolution can be attributed to a combination of factors specific to the internal market. These may include a slightly increased demand as the cold season nears its end but still requires heating, variations in renewable energy production (wind, photovoltaic) that can influence the marginal price, or higher operational costs for certain conventional generation units. What is remarkable, however, is the context in which this increase occurs. As Profit.ro highlighted, Romania has exited the “club” of the most expensive EU energy markets for the second consecutive month. This suggests a certain resilience or market structure that differentiates it from other European states, especially those in Central Europe. Factors that could contribute to this relative stability include: National energy mix: A reduced reliance on imported fossil fuels, particularly natural gas, whose price is often correlated with oil, could alleviate pressures. Romania benefits from significant domestic natural gas production and a solid base of hydropower and nuclear energy. Production capacity: Sufficient production capacity to cover domestic demand during most hourly intervals, reducing the need for costly imports from European spot markets during peak hours. Specific regulations: Regulatory measures implemented by authorities such as ANRE, including capping or compensation schemes, can buffer the direct transfer of international market volatility to end consumers and influence the behavior of market participants. Long-term contracts: The existence of longer-term bilateral contracts, which secure a portion of energy needs at predetermined prices, can reduce exposure to spot market fluctuations for some suppliers and large consumers. Compared to the global turbulence described by the IEA and HotNews.ro , the situation in Romania, with a 6% increase but without European peaks, indicates a market that, while not immune to adjustments, manages to maintain a distinct trajectory. This can be seen as a sign of relatively solid energy foundations, capable of absorbing some external shocks. Implications for Energy Consumers in Romania The 6% increase in the average price on OPCOM's Day-Ahead Market (PZU) in March has differentiated implications for various categories of consumers: Household Consumers For household consumers, the direct impact of spot market price fluctuations is often mitigated by regulatory mechanisms and the structure of supply contracts. Many benefit from fixed-price contracts or capping and compensation schemes implemented by the Government through ANRE. However, the spot price serves as an important indicator for suppliers' procurement costs, and in the long term, PZU trends can be reflected in future offers and adjustments to regulated tariffs, if applicable. The fact that Romania…