Central Bank Warning Materializes: Gas Consumption 4% Above Average Drives Electricity Prices to 536 lei/MWh — NRG-IA

Macroeconomic and Energy Context at the End of the Cold Season The 2025-2026 winter season officially ended on March 31 with statistics highlighting a paradigm shift in Romanian consumer behavior. According to data aggregated by Mediafax, national natural gas consumption was 4% higher compared to the three-year average, driven primarily by unusually low temperatures recorded in January. Although a slight decrease is observed when compared strictly to the previous year, the pressure on gas volumes remained a constant of the winter. This high level of domestic demand collides head-on with an extremely volatile international context. The Governor of the National Bank of Romania (BNR), Mugur Isărescu, issued a clear warning regarding the escalation of tensions in the Middle East. According to his statements, these geopolitical tensions have already generated visible effects on energy markets and are amplifying international financial volatility. "External developments are superimposing on the already known internal vulnerabilities of the Romanian economy," the BNR governor emphasized, indicating the risk that energy price hikes will fuel inflationary pressures. Market Analysis: The Contagion Effect from Gas to Electricity One of the clearest signals of these "internal vulnerabilities" materialized on the OPCOM energy exchange. Historically, March brings a moderation of electricity prices, amid warming weather and reduced consumption. In March 2026, however, the market registered an anomaly: the average price of the day-ahead market (PZU) rose to 536 lei/MWh. The Price Formation Mechanism The atypical evolution of the PZU can be explained by analyzing the production structure. The marginal price—the one that clears the market and sets the final cost for all participants in that specific hour—is often dictated by natural gas-fired power plants. Because gas remained expensive on wholesale markets, the production cost of electricity in combined cycle plants remained high. Thus, the high price of gas canceled out the price reduction effect that the spring-specific drop in demand would logically have brought. Evolution Chart Description (PZU vs. Natural Gas): A visual analysis of the price curves in the first quarter shows a decoupling of the PZU from meteorological factors and a close alignment with natural gas quotes. While the average temperature curve climbed in March, the electricity price curve (PZU) did not drop proportionally but followed a high plateau, sustained by the fixed cost of the megawatt of gas burned in thermal power plants. Implications: Pressures on the Entire Energy Complex The situation of natural gas and electricity cannot be isolated from the rest of the energy market. Ripple effects are felt on multiple levels: Fuel Market: On April 1, major distribution chains changed pump prices, a move influenced by the entry into force of new legislation regarding the capping of commercial markups. This administrative intervention attempts to temper prices, but the foundation of the oil market remains fragile. Global Supply Shock: According to a Reuters survey, the oil production of the OPEC cartel registered a dramatic decline in March, reaching its lowest level since June 2020 (the peak of the COVID-19 pandemic). The sudden contraction is a direct consequence of the extended conflict in the Middle East (United States and Israel against Iran), limiting the global supply of crude oil and putting pressure on all energy quotes. The combination of expensive oil (due to OPEC cuts), natural gas maintained at high prices, and electricity traded at 536 lei/MWh creates a dangerous mix for Romania's industrial competitiveness and BNR's efforts to control inflation. Perspectives: Between External Volatility and Internal Resilience Faced with these pressures, short-term solutions are limited to capping mechanisms and markup regulations, measures that treat the effect, not the cause. However, in the medium and long term, the consolidation of national infrastructure becomes critical. An example in this regard is the start of the controlled filling process of the Vidraru reservoir, announced by Hidroelectrica at the beginning of April. This stage is part of the major refurbishment project of the Vidraru Hydropower Development, a strategic investment of approximately 188 million euros (excluding VAT). With an implementation duration of about 7 years, the project aims precisely at increasing that internal resilience capable of absorbing the external shocks mentioned by the BNR governor. Modernized hydropower capacity will allow for more efficient system balancing and reduced reliance on gas plants during peak consumption moments. Until these structural investments are completed, the Romanian market will continue to navigate in a space defined by geopolitics. Industrial and domestic consumers should expect that, at least for the current year, the price of energy will remain extremely sensitive to any fluctuation in…