BVB Energy in 2026: BET-NG +133% and Valuation Outlook — NRG-IA

In less than two years, Romanian energy has transitioned from being a dominant sector on the Bucharest Stock Exchange (BVB) to one of the primary engines driving the rerating of the entire market. BET-NG, the index tracking energy and utility companies, surged by 49.62% in 2025 and by another approximately 55.5% from the beginning of 2026 through the close on August 21. Compounding these two movements yields an appreciation of nearly 133% compared to the end of 2024, excluding dividends. The scale of this rally is particularly significant given that energy does not occupy the peripheral position on the BVB that it does on major Western exchanges. OMV Petrom, Romgaz, Hidroelectrica, Electrica, Transgaz, Nuclearelectrica, Transelectrica, and Premier Energy collectively account for approximately 61% of the BET index structure. OMV Petrom, Romgaz, and Hidroelectrica alone represent over 42% of the index. By comparison, the Energy sector accounted for 3.4% of the S&P 500 as of July 31, 2026. This difference describes two almost opposite markets: in the United States, energy can become the beneficiary of a capital rotation away from heavily weighted sectors, whereas in Romania, an investor buying the market via the BET index automatically gains massive exposure to energy. The Romanian energy rally began before the 2026 oil shock This year's performance could easily be attributed to a favorable international environment for energy, given that XLE, the benchmark ETF for the US Energy sector, generated a total return of approximately 44% in 2026 up to August 21. However, BET-NG has a longer backstory. The nearly 50% growth in 2025 shows that the rerating of Romanian companies began long before the geopolitical shock in the Gulf and expensive oil pushed energy companies back into the Wall Street spotlight. The comparison of 2026 returns must also be made with precision. The approximately 55.5% advance of the BET-NG is a price return, whereas the roughly 44% figure for the XLE includes distributions. These are not perfectly equivalent metrics. However, the gap remains wide enough to demonstrate the strength of the Romanian market. The BET index itself rose by approximately 49% in 2026 up to August 21, indicating that Romania is experiencing a broader bull market. While the BET-NG outperformed the market, its lead over the main index is only a few percentage points. What is truly exceptional is the intensity of the movements at the individual company level. Romgaz appreciated by approximately 99% compared to the end of 2025, Electrica by around 110%, and Premier Energy by about 125%. Hidroelectrica climbed around 49%, Transelectrica by approximately 51%, Transgaz by 38%, OMV Petrom by 29%, and Nuclearelectrica by about 18%. These divergences show that "BVB Energy" can no longer be treated as a single investment bet. Gas, hydropower, regulated infrastructure, nuclear, distribution, and integrated production are now being valued based on fundamentally different drivers. Romgaz shows how much of the future is already priced in Romgaz provides one of the clearest examples of this regime shift. The stock nearly doubled in 2026 up to August 21, while consolidated net profit for the first half of the year grew by only 3.37% to RON 1.736 billion. Natural gas production fell by 3.39% to 2.401 billion cubic meters, and electricity generation decreased by nearly 47%. The gap between current profit trends and the share price performance indicates a strong expansion in the valuation the market assigns to future earnings. In Romgaz's case, Neptun Deep is the asset reshaping the company's outlook for the post-2027 period. The project has already advanced into the physical execution phase. As of July 20, the Neptun Alpha platform had been installed in the Black Sea, six of the ten production wells were completed, and the approximately 160-kilometer offshore pipeline to the coast had been laid. First gas is scheduled for 2027. The total investment could reach approximately €4 billion, split equally between OMV Petrom and Romgaz, with plateau production estimated at around 8 billion cubic meters of gas per year. Consequently, the market is no longer valuing Romgaz solely on its 2026 earnings. The price increasingly reflects the outlook of a company with a significantly different profile once the largest gas project in the Romanian sector of the Black Sea comes online. Hidroelectrica has some of the strongest fundamental support for its rally At Hidroelectrica, stock market dynamics are much closer to actual financial results. The share price gained approximately 49% in 2026 up to August 21, and the company reported a 40% increase in first-half revenues, a 51% rise in EBITDA, and a net profit of RON 2.571 billion, up 62% compared to the same period last year. Net electricity generation rose by 17% to 7.07 TWh, and retail supply has become an increasingly important business component. The portfolio reached approximately 1.4 million…