Gas Consumption Above the Three-Year Average and Its Impact on the Spot Market: Electricity Rose to 536 lei/MWh in March — NRG-IA

Market Context at the End of the Cold Season The specific winter consumption season of 2025-2026 officially ended on March 31st, leaving behind a complex picture of the natural gas market in Romania. According to recent data, national gas consumption this winter recorded a 4% increase compared to the average of the last three years, even though, in absolute terms, there was a slight decrease compared to the previous year. This above-average consumption volume was primarily driven by unusually low temperatures recorded in January, which forced sustained extraction from storages and maintained high demand on wholesale markets. Factor Analysis: How Gas Dictates Electricity Prices The situation of natural gas prices cannot be analyzed independently of the electricity market, where gas often plays the role of the marginal fuel, dictating the market clearing price. A spring anomaly became evident in March: although, logically and historically, prices should have fallen amid warming weather and increased production from renewable sources, the reality was quite different. The average price on the Day-Ahead Market (DAM) in Bucharest increased in March 2026, reaching a value of 536 lei/MWh . This increase compared to February directly reflects the impact that high natural gas prices have on electricity generation costs in thermal power plants. Without a substantial drop in gas quotations, the spot electricity market remains stuck at high price levels, indirectly affecting all industrial consumers exposed to the free market. Implications: Geopolitical Pressures and Internal Vulnerabilities The Romanian energy market is also feeling the shockwaves of global crises. Energy resource supply is under severe international pressure. The International Energy Agency (IEA) issued a clear warning: Middle East disruptions will hit the European economy in April, with the closure of the Strait of Hormuz severely reducing oil supplies. Concurrently, OPEC's crude oil production dropped dramatically, reaching its lowest level since June 2020, the peak of the COVID-19 pandemic, amid conflicts in the Middle East. This volatile external context was also highlighted by former President Traian Băsescu, who warned that while Romania can avoid a direct fuel shortage by having options to purchase crude oil, the true vulnerability remains electricity production. The closure of some coal-fired power units limits internal alternatives, increasing reliance on gas-fired plants — exactly the ones sustaining the high prices on the OPCOM exchange. Perspectives and Forecasts: Volatility and Market Interventions In an attempt to temper the effects of these costs on consumers, authorities have resorted to legislative interventions, visible especially in the fuel market, but offering potential lessons for the gas market. The enforcement, on April 1st, of legislation regarding the capping of commercial markups caused chaos in the distribution market. We witnessed massive price reductions — networks like Petrom and Rompetrol dropping quotations below 9 lei per liter — but also sudden midnight adjustments, such as a 15 bani price hike immediately following a drop of over 70 bani per liter. For the natural gas market, short-term forecasts indicate sustained volatility. Although heating consumption will drop drastically, the need to replenish winter storages and operate power plants (in the absence of coal) will maintain a solid baseline demand. If Middle East tensions continue to affect maritime routes and crude oil quotations, natural gas prices on European markets (and implicitly in Romania) will remain vulnerable to geopolitical risk premiums. Acest articol a fost generat cu asistența Aurora AI și verificat editorial.