The Domino Effect of Natural Gas: How a 4% Excess Winter Consumption and Middle East Shocks Rewrite Spring Price Forecasts — NRG-IA

Market Context: An Atypical Winter and Sustained Demand The 2025-2026 cold season, which officially ended on March 31, left behind highly relevant statistics for the balance of the national energy market. According to aggregated data, natural gas consumption in Romania was 4% higher than the average of the last three years . This demand advance was primarily driven by exceptionally low temperatures recorded during January, which forced accelerated extraction from storage facilities. Typically, the end of the extraction season and the transition to spring bring a relaxation of quotes on wholesale markets. This year, however, market fundamentals are altered by a combination of geopolitical and structural factors that prevent the natural decline in prices, creating a direct contagion effect in the electricity market. Factor Analysis: From Gas Quotes to the Electricity Price Anomaly The high price of natural gas, maintained by the international context, has visibly started to affect the…