The Scissors Effect on the Gas Market: Speculative Grid Blockages and the Strait of Hormuz Warning Redefine Transition Costs — NRG-IA

Geopolitical and Macroeconomic Context: The Shadow of 1973 The natural gas market is going through a period of accelerated reconfiguration, marked by extreme volatility generated by the overlapping of global crises with internal structural vulnerabilities. Internationally, alarm bells have reached a critical level. According to recent information published by Digi24 , top executives of major oil and gas companies have issued unprecedented warnings: the war with Iran and the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz are directly compared to the 1973 Arab embargo. This potential paralysis of one of the world's most important energy arteries does not only affect crude oil quotes but sends a direct shockwave into the liquefied natural gas (LNG) market and, consequently, into European pipeline gas prices, which operate on the principle of communicating vessels. In this tense international climate, Romania faces its own systemic challenges. The Government, led by Prime Minister Ilie Bolojan, is engaged in complex discussions at the European level, including with Apostolos Tzitzikostas, the European Commissioner for Sustainable Transport and Tourism, with energy prices as a central negotiation theme. Although the Executive's immediate focus seems to be mitigating shocks on the fuel market—by reducing the excise duty on diesel—the natural gas market remains the foundation upon which the entire stability of the national energy system rests during the transition period. Analysis: Internal Factors Putting Pressure on Gas Demand The dynamics of natural gas prices in Romania can no longer be explained exclusively through the lens of seasonal demand. We are currently witnessing a "scissors effect": a global supply threatened by military conflicts and an internal demand stiffened by administrative decisions and grid bottlenecks. 1. Decarbonization and the Coal Phase-out A determining factor for the gas price forecast is the pressure on electricity production. The Government recently approved a new emergency ordinance for the decarbonization of the energy sector, maintaining the strict schedule for closing coal-fired capacities, a requirement assumed through the PNRR (Source: Digi24 ). Former President Traian Băsescu publicly highlighted his concerns regarding this transition, warning that while Romania can avoid a fuel shortage, "the closure of some coal-fired units" represents a major problem for electrical security. In the absence of coal, combined cycle gas turbines (CCGT) become the only viable solution for balancing the system, turning gas into a critical resource with inelastic demand. 2. Grid Bottlenecks: The "New Smart Guys" Theoretically, the gap left by coal should be partially filled by renewable energy. Practically, the development of this sector is hindered by speculation. Prime Minister Ilie Bolojan recently denounced the existence of "new smart guys in energy" who block grid connection capacities. They obtain technical approvals without having the financial resources for real investments, with the sole purpose of later selling the documentation. This administrative blockage delays the commissioning of new wind and solar parks. The direct consequence on the gas market? A prolonged dependence on hydrocarbons for electricity production, which sustains high price levels on wholesale markets. Implications for Consumers and Industry The combination of supply risk from the Middle East and the rigidity of the Romanian energy mix generates severe implications for end consumers. The analysis of medium-term trading charts (forward products) already reflects a geopolitical risk premium. For large industrial consumers (chemical, metallurgical, building materials industries), natural gas is not just a heating source, but a raw material. Maintaining quotes at high levels, amid the Strait of Hormuz crisis, risks eroding the competitiveness of Romanian exports. For household consumers, although prices may benefit from certain short-term capping or compensation mechanisms, the real cost of energy will be transferred indirectly through inflation. The Government's efforts to reduce diesel excise duties indicate an awareness of inflationary pressure, but the gas market requires structural, not just fiscal, solutions. Perspectives and Forecasts In the short and medium term, the natural gas price forecast remains deeply dependent on the resolution of the Middle East conflict. If the Strait of Hormuz blockade materializes, experts anticipate a shock in the LNG market that will force Europe to compete aggressively with Asia for available cargoes, pulling up prices on the Vienna hub (CEGH) and, implicitly, on the Bucharest exchange (BRM). Internally, prospects depend on the Government's ability to clear the market of speculative renewable projects. PM Bolojan's announcement regarding a new regulation to penalize the artificial blocking of grid capacities is a positive signal. Unlocking real investments in green energy could, in the long…