The Substitution Effect: How the 1 Million Barrel Drop in Russian Supply and 1973-Style Warnings Alter Natural Gas Forecasts — NRG-IA

Macroeconomic Context: An Energy Market Under Geopolitical Siege Although the natural gas market in Romania benefits from a high degree of coverage from domestic production, price formation and medium-term forecasts cannot be isolated from the shocks currently traversing global energy markets. The current situation of gas prices is dictated by a domino effect triggered by the oil crisis and extreme geopolitical tensions. According to recent industry data, the hydrocarbon market is facing a severe supply contraction. Sustained attacks on Russian port infrastructure and refineries have diminished Moscow's export capacity by approximately 1 million barrels per day , representing a fifth of its total capacity. This imminent reduction in Russian production creates a deficit in the global market that puts immediate pressure on alternative energy sources, including natural gas. "Chief executives of some of the world's largest oil and gas companies have warned that the war with Iran and the…