EU gas prices could reach 100 euros per MWh — NRG-IA

Northwest European storage deficit pushes benchmark prices — what happened Goldman Sachs warns that Europe could pay over €100/MWh for natural gas by December 2026, according to an analysis published by Bloomberg and reported by G4Media. This prolonged crisis scenario indicates a massive increase of over 110% compared to the baseline scenario previously estimated at €50/MWh. Pressure on international markets is already visible, with TTF futures in Amsterdam recently exceeding the €65/MWh threshold, their highest level in five months. According to analysts Samantha Dart and Laura Cyr from the American bank, the current pace of gas storage in Europe is insufficient to guarantee passing the winter without major supply risks. Storage facilities in the northwest of the continent are estimated to reach a filling level of only 51% by the end of this month. This indicator stands 3.4 percentage points below Goldman Sachs' baseline scenario, signaling a significant structural vulnerability ahead of the cold season. Although storage campaigns traditionally take place during the summer months, market volatility and the reduced availability of alternative sources have slowed the process this year. The current level of European prices is not considered sufficient to attract the necessary flows of liquefied natural gas (LNG) from international markets, leaving European grids exposed to potential supply shocks. Middle East tensions and logistical bottlenecks in the Strait of Hormuz The direct cause of this price pressure is represented by geopolitical risks and logistical bottlenecks in the Middle East. Major regional tensions have directly affected maritime transport corridors, raising concerns over reduced LNG flows transiting the Strait of Hormuz. This strait is a vital artery for global hydrocarbon exports, and any major disruption instantly translates into price increases on European and Asian exchanges. In this context of supply uncertainty, Europe is forced to compete directly with Asian economies for the limited volumes of LNG available on the global spot market. Goldman Sachs analysts emphasize that the current price level on the TTF exchange will not be sufficient to incentivize traders to redirect LNG cargoes from Asia to European regasification terminals, should disruptions in the Middle East persist into next year. Romanian market vulnerability and the TTF price transmission mechanism The consequences of a €100/MWh price at the European level will reverberate strongly in the Romanian market as well, despite its specific domestic production profile. Romania benefits from significant local resources, mainly provided by Romgaz and OMV Petrom, which offers a high degree of energy independence compared to Western European states. However, the local exchange (Romanian Commodities Exchange - BRM) operates in a regime of tight commercial interconnection with the TTF hub in Amsterdam. A major surge in the European price to over €100/MWh (equivalent to approximately 500 RON/MWh) would exert direct pressure on the acquisition costs of Romanian suppliers. In the absence of prolonged capping mechanisms, these costs would transfer directly to industrial consumers' bills, affecting national economic competitiveness. Domestic consumers, though partially protected by internal production, could feel indirect price increases through the cost of basic goods and services. The El Niño climate scenario and gas demand reconfiguration The short-term outlook depends critically on weather developments, a factor that could temper or, conversely, exacerbate the energy crisis. While Goldman Sachs bases its calculations on average winter temperature forecasts, an alternative analysis published by Rystad Energy AS discusses the impact of a "super" El Niño climate phenomenon. According to Rystad Energy, such a phenomenon could generate an average temperature increase of up to 2 degrees Celsius in Europe during the winter months. Such a positive thermal anomaly would significantly reduce gas demand for residential heating, partially offsetting the storage deficit and protecting consumers from extreme prices. However, in the scenario of a severe winter, pressure on stocks will reach critical levels, and the €100/MWh threshold will become a commercial reality hard to avoid for European importers.