Exxon oil stock warning: Brent could hit $160 — NRG-IA

Exxon and Chevron warn of critical stock depletion — physical oil market enters high alert Exxon warns that global oil inventories will drop critically in weeks, risking major price spikes in the physical market. The US energy giant estimates that physical Brent cargoes could spike to $150–$160 per barrel once commercial inventories reach historic lows. This severe alert is mirrored by Chevron's leadership, warning of a massive summer supply squeeze as global shock absorbers dwindle rapidly. While recent US diplomatic signals temporarily cooled paper futures by over 5%, physical crude market tighteness remains extreme. Traders are currently assessing whether diplomatic talks led by US Secretary of State Marco Rubio can restore shipping traffic before commercial stocks run dry. In NRG-IA's view, the widening gap between paper futures and the actual cost of physical oil cargoes reflects an imminent shortage of physical molecules. Hormuz Strait blockade removes 13 million barrels per day from global markets The direct cause of this supply crisis is the prolonged blockade in the Strait of Hormuz, a vital maritime chokepoint handling a fifth of global energy consumption. According to Chevron, this disruption has removed up to 13 million barrels of crude oil per day from global flows. Refiners worldwide are being forced to cover their operational deficits by drawing heavily on commercial and strategic emergency stockpiles. Consistently drawing down these safety reserves without alternative immediate supply sources has pushed global storage infrastructure to its technical limits. Despite production capacities in other regions, no other country or consortium can bridge a deficit of this magnitude in the short term. Pump prices and industrial costs will remain elevated even if conflict ends A potential Brent price spike toward the $160 mark would translate directly into higher retail fuel prices across Europe and Romania, impacting households and transport companies. Even in an optimistic scenario where Middle East tensions end quickly, the European Union has issued an official warning that energy prices will not immediately return to normal. Rebuilding commercial inventories is a slow and expensive process. The inflationary pressure generated by fuel costs will continue to strain industrial supply chains for a prolonged period. This structural reality means that Romania's manufacturing and logistics sectors will have to operate with elevated costs throughout the year. Diplomatic talks with Iran remain the final safety valve before a physical supply crunch The coming weeks will be critical for the trajectory of global energy markets, with all eyes on the diplomatic channels between Washington and Tehran. The US administration has indicated it will give negotiations every chance to succeed to prevent a physical supply crunch and restore safe maritime transit. However, traders remain skeptical about how quickly any potential agreement can be implemented on a technical level. Should these talks stall, the market faces a real physical deficit of crude oil that national strategic reserves cannot offset indefinitely. Industrial consumers and large economic operators in Romania must adjust their risk budgets to cope with extreme energy price volatility this summer.