Natural gas to overtake US oil by 2030 — NRG-IA

US energy balance undergoes historic shift: natural gas poised to overtake oil Natural gas could overtake oil in US energy consumption by 2030, according to Bloomberg data analyzed by Romanian business outlets Economedia and e-nergia. This historic reversal is projected to end an era of over seven decades during which crude oil was the dominant fuel of the world’s largest economy. The consumption gap between the two resources was almost completely closed during 2025, setting the stage for an unprecedented structural transition in modern history. The last time the United States experienced a shift of this magnitude at the top of its energy hierarchy was in 1950. At that time, coal lost its leading position to oil, driven by the rapid expansion of road and air transport in the post-war era. Today, the dynamic is reconfiguring in favor of the methane molecule, a fuel long considered merely a secondary resource or a byproduct of crude oil extraction. The transition reflects a deep shift in how the US generates and consumes primary energy. While oil consumption stagnates due to rising fuel efficiency in vehicle fleets and the penetration of electric vehicles, natural gas demand is on a steady upward trajectory. This development strengthens America's energy security but also raises major new logistical challenges. The shale revolution and the massive electrification of industrial consumption The trigger for this structural transformation is the shale revolution, which began two decades ago and has now reached full technological maturity. The widespread use of hydraulic fracturing and horizontal drilling unlocked massive reserves in basins like the Permian in Texas and the Appalachian in the northeast. Large-scale production of associated gas from oil operations has flooded the domestic market, keeping prices highly competitive. This abundance of cheap resources has driven a radical transformation in the power generation sector. Utility operators have retired hundreds of coal-fired power plants, replacing them with modern combined-cycle gas turbine units. These plants offer not only carbon emissions reduced by half compared to coal, but also the operational flexibility needed to balance the grid during periods of intermittent renewable generation, such as wind and solar. Furthermore, the US chemical and metallurgical industries have heavily recalibrated to use natural gas both as a thermal energy source and as a primary feedstock. Lower operating costs have provided American industry with a major competitive advantage over European and Asian rivals facing much higher import prices. Pressure on LNG exports and the recalibration of global prices The effects of this repositioning extend beyond North American borders and directly influence the global geopolitical balance. The US has become the world's largest exporter of liquefied natural gas (LNG), serving as the primary guarantor of energy security for Europe following the drastic reduction in supplies from the Russian Federation. However, more intense domestic gas utilization could create latent trade tension between US industrial consumer demand and export contract obligations. For consumers in Romania and the rest of the European Union, this dynamic across the Atlantic has a direct impact on energy bills. Prices on the Amsterdam exchange (TTF), which set the benchmark for gas consumed in Europe, are increasingly correlated with the capacity of liquefaction terminals in the Gulf of Mexico and the US Henry Hub benchmark price. Any sharp increase in US domestic consumption tends to limit volumes available for export, putting upward pressure on global prices. Additionally, the transformation of US power grids highlights a model that European states are also trying to implement, albeit at significantly higher costs due to a lack of domestic shale resources. The increased reliance on gas as a transition fuel shows that phasing out hydrocarbons entirely remains a much more complex and time-consuming process than initially estimated by ambitious climate strategies. The pace of data center expansion and federal regulatory risks The short- and medium-term outlook is closely tied to the explosion of energy consumption in the tech sector, particularly for powering data centers dedicated to artificial intelligence. Estimates from major grid operators indicate that new computing facilities will require tens of additional gigawatts of installed capacity in the coming years. In the absence of utility-scale battery storage, natural gas plants remain the only viable option to ensure continuous, uninterrupted power. However, the final transition to the absolute leading position faces major risks related to infrastructure and regulation. The construction of new major gas pipelines faces opposition from environmental groups and prolonged administrative lawsuits, which may limit the physical transport of gas from production areas to major consumption hubs. Moreover, federal policies…