Eastern Europe energy mix 2024 EXPRO — NRG-IA

Regional Energy Security in 2024: Major Asymmetries in the Production Mix Around Romania Romania’s neighboring countries recorded major asymmetries in their energy mixes in 2024, according to an analysis published by EXPRO Consulting, driven by imbalances between baseload and intermittent production capacities. This context forced transmission system operators to manage massive and often unpredictable cross-border flows. While some states accelerated the green transition, others remained dependent on fossil or nuclear sources to maintain grid stability. Ukraine represented the region's most critical point in 2024, being forced to base almost its entire domestic consumption on nuclear power and emergency imports from neighboring states, including Romania. The destruction of a large part of its thermal and hydroelectric generation capacities transformed the country from a net exporter into a major absorber of energy from the European ENTSO-E grid. Data from EXPRO Consulting shows that imports became vital to avoid a total collapse of the Ukrainian system during peak consumption periods. In parallel, Hungary continued its rapid expansion of solar capacities, but without an equivalent development of storage systems. This situation created an extremely volatile production profile: massive power surpluses at noon and severe deficits in the evening hours, covered by heavy imports from Romania and Slovakia. Bulgaria, on the other hand, attempted to maintain its coal production at the thermal power plants in the Maritsa East complex, although the economic pressure of CO2 certificates reduced their competitiveness on the free market. Uncoordinated Integration of Renewables and Accelerated Coal Decline The main cause of the tensions in Eastern European grids in 2024 was the lack of regional coordination in planning the energy mix. While solar capacities grew exponentially in Hungary and Romania, battery storage capacities remained negligible. This structural asymmetry left the regional system vulnerable to extreme weather events, such as the prolonged drought and heatwave of summer 2024, which simultaneously reduced hydroelectric production and the efficiency of thermal power plants. Furthermore, the accelerated retirement or conservation of coal-fired units in Bulgaria and Romania was not compensated in time by the commissioning of new gas-fired or nuclear units. Consequently, the region lost essential dispatchable power reserves. The analysis by expro.com.ua highlights that this rapid transition, carried out in the absence of sufficiently robust interconnections with Western Europe, partially isolated Eastern European markets, magnifying energy shortages at critical moments. Pressure on Balancing Prices and European Market Fragmentation The direct consequence of these imbalances was reflected in record-high prices on regional spot markets. In the summer of 2024, prices in Romania, Hungary, and Bulgaria frequently exceeded the threshold of 300-400 EUR/MWh during evening hours, creating a massive gap compared to Western European markets, where prices often remained negative or very low due to wind power and French nuclear generation. This phenomenon, known in the market as the "Balkan premium," demonstrated that cross-border interconnectors operated at the limit of their technical capacity. For industrial and residential consumers in the region, this dynamic translates into higher procurement costs for suppliers, which are gradually transferred to final bills or absorbed through government capping schemes. In addition, the costs of system services and balancing paid by transmission system operators, such as Transelectrica or MAVIR, increased significantly to keep grid frequency within safe limits, putting additional pressure on grid tariffs. Capacity Deficits in Winter 2025 and Storage Deadlines The short-term outlook remains tense, as the regional grid must cope with the winter months with limited gas reserves and continuous pressure from the Ukrainian system. The main risk remains the occurrence of prolonged periods without wind and sun (the Dunkelflaute phenomenon), which could once again force the startup of expensive coal-fired capacities or the application of industrial load reduction measures. The deadline for stabilizing the system directly depends on the commissioning of the first large-scale battery storage projects funded through the NRRP and the Modernisation Fund, scheduled for the end of 2025 in Romania and Hungary. Until then, according to the EXPRO Consulting report, regional markets will remain highly sensitive to temperature fluctuations and the evolution of emergency imports requested by Ukraine.