NuScale Plunge: What Open SMR Contracts Mean for Doicești — NRG-IA

NuScale Power shares have dropped from around $37 a year ago to the $9 range in the July 7 trading session, following a correction exceeding 70%. The market has not withdrawn its bet on nuclear energy, but has sharply discounted the premium paid upfront for the promise of rapid small modular reactor (SMR) commercialization. At the heart of this reassessment lies the gap between an approved nuclear design, an announced project, and a contract that actually binds the parties to deliver, purchase, and assume technological risk. This same gap has become the critical sticking point at Doicești as well. Nuclearelectrica has asked shareholders to approve the initiation of an assessment to update its SMR strategy, after two conditions deemed imperative for the project's feasibility were not met by the June 2026 deadline: the framework agreement with NuScale on risk-sharing and a firm formula for purchasing the six nuclear modules. The stock market penalizes the phase between licensing and commercialization NuScale does not enter this phase empty-handed. At the end of the first quarter of 2026, the company reported cash and investments of approximately $1 billion, and its supply chain already includes long-lead materials and industrial partnerships for nuclear components. However, liquidity is no substitute for recurring commercial revenue, nor does it automatically translate publicly announced projects into ordered nuclear capacity. NuScale recorded revenues of $31.5 million in 2025, down from $37 million in 2024. In the first quarter of 2026, revenues fell to $565,000 from $13.375 million in the same period of 2025, following the conclusion of licensing revenues from RoPower and FEED activities carried out for the Doicești project. The financial picture shows a company still in a phase where revenues are predominantly generated from licensing, engineering, and services for projects under development. Filings with the US Securities and Exchange Commission explicitly show that significant revenues to date stem from engineering and licensing activities for potential clients, while the commercial objective remains the sale of nuclear modules. This is the equation weighing on NuScale's stock. The market is no longer just evaluating the quality of the technology or the potential electricity demand from data centers and AI. The market demands a complete chain: a client with purchasing power, a power purchase agreement, a firm order for modules, closed financing, a risk structure accepted by the developer, and a contractually secured delivery schedule. The 77 MW design is approved. The economics of the first plant remain open. NuScale holds a genuine technological and regulatory advantage. The US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) finalized the standard design approval for the US460 in May 2025: a plant consisting of six 77 MWe modules, with a total capacity of 462 MWe. This is the exact configuration planned for Doicești. Design approval allows the technical documentation to be used in plant licensing, construction, or operating permit procedures. It mitigates a major regulatory risk, but it does not eliminate the industrial and financial risks of the first commercial plant. Construction, module manufacturing, site integration, performance guarantees, cost of capital, and power pricing remain distinct contractual matters. NuScale's track record shows why the market treats these stages separately. The Carbon Free Power Project, the US project developed alongside Utah Associated Municipal Power Systems, was abandoned in 2023 following cost increases and the withdrawal of several participants, despite receiving US federal support. This episode shifted the debate from the technological promise of SMRs to the central question for any modular nuclear project: can the first-of-a-kind plant be delivered at a cost, schedule, and risk structure acceptable to the end buyer? For subsequent projects, modules can benefit from repeatability, standardization, construction experience, and more mature manufacturing supply chains. For the first large-scale project, however, the cost of error is highly concentrated: who pays if the first module is delayed, fails to meet contracted parameters, or requires costly modifications before the next five are manufactured and delivered? The 6 GW US program opens the market, but does not close orders NuScale relies on its partnership with ENTRA1 as its primary global commercialization channel. In 2025, ENTRA1 and the Tennessee Valley Authority (TVA) announced they were exploring the development of plants that could provide up to 6 GW of nuclear capacity in the TVA region. The scale is significant: at 77 MWe per module, a 6 GW program implies dozens of modules and could transform NuScale into an industrial supplier with serial production. However, the company's contracts show that the path to an equipment order is phased. ENTRA1 retains full freedom to select, contract, or purchase from NuScale for…