IEA Warns Commercial Oil Stocks Have Only Weeks Left — NRG-IA

The International Energy Agency warns that global commercial oil inventories are depleting rapidly, leaving the market with only a few weeks of available buffer amid the war with Iran and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz to maritime oil transit. The warning was delivered on Monday, May 18, 2026, by Fatih Birol, Executive Director of the IEA, at the G7 finance ministers' meeting in Paris. Birol stated that releases from strategic reserves have added approximately 2.5 million barrels/day to the market, but warned that these reserves "are not endless." In the same address, the IEA chief described a disconnect in perception between the physical oil market and financial markets, at a time when crude prices remain supported by supply risks but do not yet fully reflect the depletion of inventories. Commercial inventories are the first buffer to give way Prior to the US and Israeli strikes on Iran in late February, the oil market was in a surplus position, with high commercial inventories.…