Winter power contracts top RON 947/MWh on PCCB-LE-flex — NRG-IA

New electricity contracts for the cold season crossed the RON 940/MWh threshold on September 8 on the market operated by OPCOM, at a time when Romania is operating without any output from the two reactors at Cernavodă. The most expensive of the four transactions concluded on the PCCB-LE-flex platform reached RON 947.09/MWh , for baseload power delivered continuously between October 15, 2026, and March 31, 2027. This is neither the price of the entire electricity market nor the price that directly impacts consumer bills. However, it represents a strong commercial signal: newly contracted power for the cold months is being purchased at levels considerably higher than the average of existing contracts for the same period. On September 8, the four transactions concluded on PCCB-LE-flex totaled 53,324 MWh , and the resulting weighted average price from the volumes and prices published by OPCOM is approximately RON 940.68/MWh . The highest-priced transaction, at RON 947.09/MWh , involved 20,160 MWh at a constant capacity of 5 MW, with delivery between October 15 and March 31. A second contract, identical in volume and delivery period, cleared at RON 942.47/MWh . For the final quarter of 2026, a contract for 2,209 MWh, with delivery between October 1 and December 31, reached RON 945.54/MWh . Separately, for the period from January 1 to March 31, 2027, 10,795 MWh were traded at RON 924.39/MWh . All of these were baseload products, which in OPCOM terminology means continuous delivery, 24 hours a day, over the contracted period. Therefore, the prices do not reflect a few expensive peak hours, but rather baseload power purchased for entire months. New contracts surge by over 37% in a single month The September transactions continue a trend that had already become visible in August. OPCOM's official report shows that in August, new contracts for 170,625 MWh were concluded on PCCB-LE-flex at a weighted average price of RON 863.77/MWh . In July, 746,470 MWh had been contracted on the same market at an average price of RON 628.86/MWh . In just one month, the average price of new contracts thus increased by approximately 37.35% , while the traded volume fell by about 77.14% . These two movements must be read together. The sharp price increase occurred in a market with much lower liquidity, meaning that the structure and duration of a few transactions can have a stronger impact on the monthly average. However, this trend is not isolated to bilateral contracts. On the Day-Ahead Market, the average clearing price rose in August to RON 793.55/MWh , compared to RON 629.25/MWh in July , representing an increase of approximately 26%. On the intraday market, the weighted average price climbed from RON 537.23 to RON 740.43/MWh , an increase of nearly 38%. Pressure is therefore visible simultaneously across multiple segments of the wholesale market. Marginal winter price stands well above older contracts The level of RON 947/MWh does not describe all the energy already contracted for this winter. OPCOM statistics aggregating existing contracts by delivery month show a weighted average price of approximately RON 590.98/MWh for October 2026, RON 602.68/MWh for November, and RON 602.56/MWh for December. For the beginning of 2027, the averages are higher: RON 648.82/MWh in January , RON 648.38/MWh in February , and RON 643.28/MWh in March . The gap compared to the September 8 transactions is substantial. It shows that energy contracted now, close to the delivery period and amid tight supply, is valued much higher than previously purchased volumes. The market is not saying that all winter electricity costs RON 947/MWh. It is saying something more precise: the latest megawatt-hours contracted for the cold season are being purchased at prices hundreds of lei above the average of the existing portfolio . Romania operates without approximately 1.2–1.3 GW of nuclear capacity At the same time, Romania's largest source of continuous and predictable generation is unavailable. The two units of the Cernavodă nuclear power plant total approximately 1,411 MW of installed capacity . Unit 1 has about 706.5 MWe, and Unit 2 about 704.8 MWe. Unit 1 was taken offline in a controlled shutdown at the end of July, and Unit 2 on August 13, amid a severe drop in the Danube's water levels. On September 8, the Ministry of Energy estimated the actual shortfall in the system at around 1,200–1,300 MW . The absence of Cernavodă is a major supply factor, but it cannot alone explain the price of RON 947.09/MWh. Forward contracts simultaneously reflect the availability of all generation sources, hydro conditions, thermal power plant costs, imports, anticipated demand, regional risks, and market liquidity. However, the coincidence is striking: Romania is contracting energy for the cold months at its highest recent levels precisely at a time when approximately 1.2–1.3 GW of nuclear generation is missing from the system. The Danube remains far below its September average…