Grid Approval Speculation and Coal Phase-Out: How the OPCOM Spot Market is Left Without Real Generation Capacities — NRG-IA

Context: Pressure on Production Capacities and European Geopolitics The spot electricity market (Day-Ahead Market - DAM) managed by OPCOM is the main barometer of the balance between supply and demand in the Romanian energy sector. Currently, price evolution on this platform is dictated by a convergence of two major factors: the retirement of classic production capacities and the administrative bottlenecks preventing new renewable capacities from entering the system. Amid a global energy crisis that major oil company executives are already comparing to the 1973 Arab embargo, according to information published by Digi24, security of supply becomes critical. While the Romanian Government focuses on immediate measures to protect fuel consumers—with PM Ilie Bolojan announcing a focus on reducing the excise duty on diesel, where the highest increases occurred—the electricity sector faces deep structural vulnerabilities. Former President Traian Băsescu recently highlighted at Digi24 that, although Romania can avoid a fuel shortage by having alternative crude oil sources, the real concern is electricity production. He drew attention to the "closure of coal-fired groups," a decision that eliminates a vital source of baseload energy (constant, dispatchable production) from the system, which is essential for national grid stability and, implicitly, for moderating prices on the OPCOM market. Analysis: The "New Smart Guys" and the Impact on the Spot Market The withdrawal of coal capacities should have been quickly compensated by the installation of new wind and photovoltaic parks. However, the spot market reflects an acute lack of new, cheap offers. The root of this problem was recently exposed by PM Ilie Bolojan, who denounced the practices of the "new smart guys in energy" (energy speculators) . According to the Prime Minister's statements cited by Digi24, these actors block the national grid's capacities by obtaining Technical Connection Approvals (ATR) without having the intention or financial resources to carry out the investments. "They have no intention of making those investments, they have no resources, they just block them and sell papers and sell only ideas and things they have blocked," the head of the Executive explained. The impact of this speculation on the OPCOM spot market is direct and severe: Real Supply Deficit: Because grid capacity is reserved on paper by phantom projects, real investors who have the capital to build renewable parks are rejected by grid operators (Transelectrica and distributors) due to a lack of capacity. Maintaining High Prices: Without the influx of renewable energy (which has a marginal cost close to zero), the spot market is forced to close at the price dictated by the most expensive producers left in the system or through imports, keeping the daily average at a high level. Extreme Volatility: In the absence of new storage capacities and baseload energy (coal), any fluctuation in weather or consumption translates into abrupt price variations on the DAM. Implications: Regional Vulnerabilities and Consumer Bills In addition to internal blockages, Romania's energy market does not operate in a vacuum, being coupled with European markets. Geopolitical risks add an extra risk premium to prices. The recent discovery of backpacks containing explosives near the Balkan Stream gas pipeline in northern Serbia, reported by Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic and picked up by Digi24, underscores the fragility of regional energy infrastructure. Although the pipeline supplies Serbia and Hungary, any disruption of gas flows in the region puts pressure on natural gas prices on European exchanges, which is immediately reflected in the production costs of gas-fired power plants in Romania, again influencing the OPCOM price. These complex issues were on the agenda of discussions between PM Ilie Bolojan and Apostolos Tzitzikostas, the European Commissioner for Sustainable Transport and Tourism. Energy prices and interconnection projects are vital not only for household consumers but also for the competitiveness of Romania's industry and transport sector. Moreover, Russia's influence over the European energy sector remains a current topic, with recent analyses indicating how Moscow partially controls the nuclear energy of some European states, including through its relationship with Hungarian PM Viktor Orban. These indirect dependencies maintain a climate of uncertainty that discourages long-term investments and keeps pressure on short-term spot markets. Perspectives: New Regulations and the Need for Stability To correct the anomalies on OPCOM and ensure a sustainable energy transition, state intervention in unblocking the market has become imminent. PM Bolojan announced the preparation of a new regulation aimed at clearing the market of approval speculators. This could involve introducing strict financial guarantees or execution deadlines, after which unused ATRs would be canceled and…