Critical Oil Stocks: Saudi Aramco Warns of 2-Year Recovery — NRG-IA

A 3-billion-barrel deficit on the global market — why oil stocks are critically low The global oil market is facing a massive deficit of 3 billion barrels lost since the outbreak of the military conflict in the Middle East, warns Saudi Aramco CEO Amin Nasser. This severe global supply disruption is forcing the accelerated draw of existing commercial reserves. Rebuilding these critical inventories could take up to two years, even after maritime transport normalizes. Forbes România notes that this warning was delivered during a major industry event in London. Speaking at the Energy Intelligence conference, Nasser emphasized that the global system is already under extreme pressure. To offset the massive deficit, approximately 1 billion barrels have been drawn from stocks, primarily commercial ones. In this context, international prices reflect the deep market tension, with Brent crude trading at $102.20 per barrel and WTI reaching $90.64 per barrel. Although global storage sites still hold about 6 billion barrels of oil on paper, Saudi Aramco's chief warns that these volumes are unavailable. They cannot be mobilized quickly enough to intervene effectively on the market. These volumes represent mandatory operational stocks and strategic national reserves that are difficult to access. This logistical rigidity severely limits the options of consuming nations in the face of prolonged supply blockades. To counter the crisis, G7 nations, under the presidency of France, decided to release 100 million barrels of crude from their emergency reserves. However, this coordinated intervention covers only a small fraction of the gap left by the military conflict. The market remains highly vulnerable to structural supply deficits. Ziarul Financiar highlighted that global inventories are worryingly low. The Strait of Hormuz bottleneck and the impact of the 2026 military conflict The root cause of this unprecedented crisis is the military conflict that erupted in late February 2026, marked by strikes launched by the US and Israel against Iran. These hostilities severely disrupted transit through the Strait of Hormuz, the world’s most critical energy chokepoint. Approximately 20% of global oil and liquefied natural gas flows pass through this narrow waterway daily. The partial blockage and transport insecurity have isolated massive volumes of crude from consumer markets. The prolonged disruption of shipments has reduced oil availability in European and Asian markets. Shipping companies are avoiding the area or paying massive insurance premiums, which increases global logistical costs. Amin Nasser believes that market pressures will continue until shipments through Hormuz return completely to normal. Market participants' confidence must be restored to stabilize prices. Prolonged inflationary pressure on the Romanian market and high pump prices For Romanian consumers, this global imbalance will translate directly into prolonged high fuel prices over the medium term. Although Romania possesses domestic extraction capabilities, it remains dependent on crude oil imports to cover its total refining capacity. Because domestic pump prices are directly correlated with international Brent benchmarks, the global deficit will maintain constant inflationary pressure on the national economy for the next two years. The G7's 100-million-barrel intervention is simply too small to reverse this upward pricing trend. Romanian households and industrial consumers will feel the increased logistical costs across all consumer goods. Freight transport will become more expensive, amplifying the pressure on supply chains. This economic reality will complicate the monetary policy decisions of the National Bank of Romania. Logistical risks over the next two years and strategic G7 decisions In the short term, market focus remains on the evolution of the military conflict and the ability to secure the Strait of Hormuz. Even if maritime transit is fully restored, the physical process of replenishing commercial inventories will be a long-term logistical challenge. Strategic decisions by the European Union and G7 nations regarding further emergency reserve releases will be crucial. However, without a full restoration of production and secure transport routes, extreme volatility will remain the dominant feature of the energy market. Romania must secure its alternative supply routes through the Black Sea to reduce its exposure. The coming months will be decisive for configuring the new European logistical corridors.