Transelectrica: 854 MW Lignite Needed if Mintia Delayed — NRG-IA

Romania is entering the most difficult test of its energy transition: not how many megawatts of coal it retires, but how many dispatchable megawatts are actually available in the system when demand peaks. Transelectrica's adequacy study for 2027, 2030, and 2035 shows that phasing out lignite capacity, combined with delays at the new Mintia gas-fired plant and slow growth in battery storage and prosumers, could put direct pressure on the security of electricity supply. For 2027, the critical scenario analyzed assumes the retirement of lignite plants in line with Target 119 of the NRRP (National Recovery and Resilience Plan), keeping one unit operational at Craiova and one at Govora, delays to the new gas-fired units at Mintia, and pessimistic growth projections for both prosumers and battery storage. Within this framework, Transelectrica points to an adequacy risk that can no longer be treated as a mere technical issue. The safety solution analyzed for the 2027 phase involves keeping several lignite-fired units operational at Rovinari and Turceni, with a total available capacity of 854 MW . Specifically, the alternative scenario outlines three units at Rovinari (one in technical reserve) and two units at Turceni (one in technical reserve). The Real Issue is the Timeline for Firm Capacity The issue cannot be reduced to the simplistic formula of "Romania is returning to coal." The data points to something else: Romania risks decommissioning firm capacity before its replacements are available at a sufficient scale. In a power system, installed capacity is not the same as adequacy. Solar, wind, batteries, imports, and demand-side flexibility can ease pressure on the grid, but they do not automatically replace dispatchable capacity available during critical periods. Adequacy is decided during peak hours, not by annual averages. This is why the Mintia plant is so critical. If 1,000 MW of capacity at Mintia comes online on time, Transelectrica shows that NRRP Target 119 can be met. If Mintia is delayed, the system will require a safety bridge. In Transelectrica's analysis, that bridge would consist of the lignite units at Turceni and Rovinari. Mintia Becomes the Critical Condition for a Controlled Transition The new gas-fired power plant at Mintia is designed to be one of Romania's most significant new capacities. The total announced capacity for the project is approximately 1,700 MW , with the first operational phase linked to testing the first 575 MW . Public data on the project's progress shows that connecting and energizing the first gas turbine has been treated as a priority. However, actual commissioning still requires completing on-site works, testing, certified personnel, and integration into operating and dispatch systems. This is the real energy stake: Mintia is not just an investment project; it is a firm replacement for a portion of the retired lignite capacity. If this capacity does not come online on time, Romania could face a gap between its decarbonization commitments and the grid's technical requirements. 854 MW Does Not Mean a Strategic Return to Lignite Temporarily keeping 854 MW online at Turceni and Rovinari must be understood as an adequacy measure, not a strategy to return to coal. Lignite units are expensive, polluting, and heavily burdened by carbon allowance costs. Complexul Energetic Oltenia's restructuring plan and Romania's commitments both mandate the gradual phase-out of lignite. However, retiring firm capacity must be synchronized with the commissioning of other dispatchable sources or a sufficiently flexible mix to cover critical hours. Without this synchronization, decarbonization could create systemic vulnerabilities. Transelectrica indicates that keeping 854 MW online at Turceni and Rovinari would ease pressure compared to the central reference scenario. The estimated average electricity price for the recommended 2027 scenario is 327 euro/MWh , approximately 45% lower than in the central reference scenario. Even so, the National Power System (SEN) would remain a net importer, at around 11 TWh annually . This figure shifts the perspective: temporarily keeping some lignite units online may reduce risk, but it does not make Romania self-sufficient. It merely buys time for new capacities, grids, batteries, flexibility, and more efficient operations. Batteries Help the Grid, but Cannot Fill the Capacity Gap Alone Transelectrica's study also includes assumptions regarding battery storage. In the central reference scenario, the modeling factors in 300 MW / 1,200 MWh of storage paired with renewable sources and 200 MW / 600 MWh available as active power control reserve in the SEN. In the scenario where Mintia comes online, the modeling assumes a more robust expansion of storage: 1,000 MW / 4,000 MWh paired with renewables and 546 MW / 1,092 MWh available as active power control reserve. Batteries are becoming essential for flexibility, shifting energy from high-production hours to peak…