Energy System Vulnerability Amid Coal Decommissioning and Balkan Stream Risks: Price Perspectives for 2026 — NRG-IA

The Context of Energy Fragility: Between Sabotage and Structural Transition The Romanian and European energy sectors are undergoing a forced reconfiguration, where the physical security of infrastructure and domestic policy decisions regarding the production mix directly dictate tariff trends. In the last 48 hours, two major events have reconfirmed supply vulnerability: the discovery of explosive devices near the Balkan Stream pipeline in Serbia and the OPEC+ warning regarding the massive costs of rebuilding infrastructure affected by conflicts. These elements are not mere isolated incidents, but factors consolidating a permanent "risk premium" in energy pricing. Analysis of Pressure Factors: Coal, Gas, and Refineries 1. The Dilemma of Decommissioning Coal Capacities A major concern for the stability of the national energy system was recently expressed by former President Traian Băsescu. He warned about the risks involved in closing coal-fired power units without having equivalent…